Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 42.169328 49.706141 57.937980 67.562545 78.471186 90.415392 104.445595
2025-01-05 30.372566 40.253867 52.075612 67.112651 85.568944 107.314359 134.689005
2025-01-12 25.550701 36.952914 51.533236 71.220237 96.744911 128.331183 169.934715
2025-01-19 19.447684 30.591345 45.768049 67.421923 96.919638 135.040484 187.261792
2025-01-26 16.851905 28.415091 44.993065 69.709325 104.705542 151.464693 217.451900
2025-02-02 15.437045 27.645717 45.936177 74.233013 115.601832 172.400146 254.500761
2025-02-09 13.681484 26.023598 45.335713 76.307474 122.997771 188.776153 286.020292
2025-02-16 12.051238 24.316177 44.332472 77.552921 129.098468 203.477360 315.736658
2025-02-23 10.433746 22.352242 42.641999 77.476152 133.067099 215.158189 341.534424
2025-03-02 8.823720 20.122545 40.213078 75.911444 134.509632 223.046150 362.022361
2025-03-09 7.654560 18.518719 38.637495 75.534246 137.669590 233.503682 386.567628
2025-03-16 6.149725 15.968525 35.045681 71.342657 134.291069 233.678374 395.552747
2025-03-23 5.520713 15.247382 34.942500 73.600942 142.313388 252.924676 435.998197
2025-03-30 4.644269 13.816077 33.321464 73.027821 145.635237 265.136292 466.563438
2025-04-06 4.367325 13.723172 34.342256 77.425619 157.808623 292.182094 521.575998
2025-04-13 3.417622 11.732969 31.130220 73.354377 154.628131 293.775838 535.968844
2025-04-20 3.102812 11.320695 31.242086 75.806286 163.361553 315.616998 583.970127
2025-04-27 2.979008 11.412272 32.488035 80.652537 176.800160 346.018331 647.154067
2025-05-04 2.701283 10.988313 32.480114 82.873736 185.400141 368.433112 697.874240
2025-05-11 2.406622 10.434885 32.081016 84.206935 192.347409 388.228601 744.883927
2025-05-18 2.080375 9.685204 31.084121 84.124765 196.492402 403.207631 784.218443
2025-05-25 1.732833 8.748253 29.456447 82.449748 197.318445 412.216093 813.566464
2025-06-01 1.485355 8.085637 28.439549 82.045897 200.641082 425.834361 851.321822